There are two ways in which Kadima and Yisrael Beitenu will be members of the same coalition. Either under Livni or under Bibi. As I’ve already said, the only way Livni can form a coalition is if Lieberman sells out. Yes, Bibi could join a Livni-led coalition, but if Lieberman holds his own, I don’t see that happening – Netanyahu has a stronger hand right now.
The other, only slightly more likely, possibility is that Netanyahu actually manages to convince Livni to join a government under his leadership. Any future government in this Knesset will almost surely include Avigdor Lieberman, as a senior member of that coalition. And since Netanyahu has already claimed he wants to form a the largest possible coalition, we might see all three parties in the same government (total number of seats of those three: 70). I do not think this will happen, for reasons I will explain, but in case it does, it might be the best option.
Traditionally, in Israel, the government is very ineffective. I don’t see this changing any time soon. However, Israeli government have also usually been very damaging to Israel. Thus, if Kadima joins a Likud coalition, there will be so much infighting that the government will probably be, just as ineffective, but will also be relatively powerless – too hamstrung to do any real damage. The status quo will remain the staus quo, and I can think of much worse things than that.
Nevertheless, this scenario is not very likely, Livni does not seem as durable of a figure on the Israeli political landscape as, say, Bibi, Peres, Barak, etc. If she does capitulate, and join a Likud-led government, her days as chairwoman of the internecine Kadima will be numbered. She stands a far better chance of “long-term” survival is she pretends to stand up to Netanyahu.
As someone who has watched American politics break down over the battle of politicians choosing between compromise and partisanship, I’m not sure you should be thrilled with a government that is hamstrung. In the last few days three American Senators have been, largely, able to decide how America spends nearly 800 billion dollars, because Obama needed their votes to get his bill through the Senate. In my view, closely divided government either gets nothing done or gives too much power to the too few that live in the center.
http://www.americanreality.wordpress.com
Why don’t you just give your government over to Obama.
He could solve all you problems just like he is solving America’s.
You aren’t racist are you?
[...] Israeli has this assessment of the possibility of a national unity government: Traditionally, in Israel, the government is very [...]
You’re absolutely right. I was being somewhat facetious. I’m not thrilled with the election results at all, nor would I really be thrilled with an utterly powerless administration. Israel’s alternatives, as history has shown, are not really any better. Unfortunately, much about Israeli politics (and maybe politics everywhere) is about hoping for lesser of too many evils.
I will write about this more soon, but what Israel really needs is a complete overhaul of the electoral system. It needs some accountability, and more stability. The current system affords it neither.