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Elections

Labor Collapses, Kadima Sticks Around

‍‍כג חשון תשסט - Nov 20th, 2008
by LB.
3 comments

The latest pre-election polls came out today, and Labor is the big loser. According to the poll, if elections were held today, Likud would win 32 seats in the Knesset, whereas Labor would have only 8(!) seats. According to the poll, Netanyahu would be able to form 65-seat coalition, made up of Yisrael Beiteinu, Shas, UTJ, and HaBayit HaYehudi (the new right wing party).

What baffles me most is Kadima, with 26 seats. This party has no ideology, is corrupt beyond belief, and still seems to be the default vote for the center-left public. How 20% of the public would still vote for them is beyond me?

Fewer Political Parties in Israel?

‍‍כ חשון תשסט - Nov 18th, 2008
by LB.
2 comments

Being a Prime Minister is not an easy job. The first assignment of any Prime Minister, even before taking the oath of office, is putting together a coalition. In order to rule, one must ensure a majority of 61 votes in the Knesset, piecing together agreements with the many political parties, who represent the many different, extremely vocal, sectors of Israeli society.

The 17th Knesset, due to make way for the 18th this coming February, for example is made up of 12 different lists (some of which included more than one party). Forming a coalition in Israel is not an easy task, which necessitates meeting the demands on various interest groups in return for their support.

Recently, upon the tendering of Olmert’s resignation, Kadima held their primary elections. Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni won, and was tasked with the formation of a coalition, based on the makeup of the current Knesset. Shas demanded that Livni rule out any compromise on Jerusalem in any future negotiations. Livni refused, and decided not to form a narrow, left-wing coalition.

Within the past decade, however, Israel has been moving away from the current system of an extreme multitude of parties, pulling the government every which way. Coalitionary politics in Israel today, along with no-confidence votes forcing new elections, do not allow for a stable government. In fact, in the State of Israel’s short history, only one government has ever completed a full four-year term (the 7th Knesset, with Golda Meir as PM).

A somewhat limiting factor in the number of parties represented in the Knesset is the election threshold, which does not allow for a party to be elected to the Knesset with only one seat. This historic instability of Israeli government is, in many ways, a testament to the vibrancy of the Israeli democratic process. It does not, however, allow for governing to take place. Policies are changed more quickly than socks, and the governing party must constantly take into account the sectoral interests of various parties.

Increasing the election threshold is not, however, a viable long term solution. Over the past 16 years the threshold has been raised, albeit at very gradually, from 1% in 1992 to 2% today. A change to, say 10%, as it is in Turkey, would probably not last very long. The public would cry out that the larger parties are stifling unpopular opinion and claim that such a change amounts to limiting free speech. Israel already has a history of making changes to the political system and reverting back to the original in the face of public opinion (the shortlived period direct elections for PM comes to mind), and the threshold would probably be lowered back to the current level fairly quickly.

Within the state’s history, there have been as many as 15 different lists (and even more parties) represented at once in the Knesset. Every time this number seems to shrink a bit (no lower than 10, though), another party, serving a narrow sector of society, becomes the temporary favorite. In the last election it was Gil, just like Yisrael BaAliyah in 1996 and Shinui in 2003.

This year there seems to be a movement on the politicians’ side to consolidate electoral support within a smaller number of parties. The attempt at forming a right-wing political party, made up of the many factions in the far right, is nothing new, however there are interesting developments within the large parties.

Historically, the Knesset has been dominated by two political parties that have developed into today’s Labor and Likud. In 2006, Kadima changed that, winning the largest number of seats, and premiership. Nevertheless, Kadima was always an artificial party, yet another breakaway party formed by Ariel Sharon (this time from the Likud). He succeeded in taking many Likud members with him, as well recruiting a few politicians from Labor. There was never any ideology, a common theme for most attempt at a “center” party in Israel’s history. Olmert rode (comatose) Sharon’s coattails to victory in 2006, and even with the fairly popular Livni at the helm, it appears that Kadima’s success will not be repeated and that it is a bubble waiting to burst (like Shinui). Nonetheless, this is not likely to happen in 2009, and Kadima will probably remain a formidable force in the Knesset for the next few years.

Currently, the two legitimately “large parties” are in the midst of a massive recruitment drive. This is not surprising; parties have always tried to recruit “celebrity” public figures, in the hopes of this converting such figures’ support into electoral gains. What is somewhat surprising is who has been joining this year.

Ha’aretz journalists, Daniel Ben-Simon and Avi Shaked have recently announced their intention to run for Labor seats in next month’s primaries. Yariv Oppenheimer, Secretary-General of Peace Now, has also announced that he will run for a seat in the Labor primaries. This is notable, since Oppenheimer’s views are more aligned with the far left parties, such as Meretz. Nevertheless, the left does not appear to have truly adopted this trend, with politicians such as Ami Ayalon leaving Labor, possibly for Meretz for another far-left party.

The Likud has seen much more activity lately. The return of the popular Benny Begin and Dan Meridor, as well as former IDF Chief of Staff Moshe “Bogie” Ya’alon represent a significant reinforcement for the party that only tied as the third largest party in the 2006 elections. It is not only popular politicians that are joining Likud, however, as Efi Eitam has also announced his desire to join Likud.

In any case, if recent developments are any sign, Israel will experience a significant reduction in the number of political parties in the Knesset, and possibly a slightly more stable government.

Jerusalem Has a Future Again!

‍‍יד חשון תשסט - Nov 12th, 2008
by LB.
4 comments

Until now, I have refrained from speaking about the Jerusalem mayoral elections because I don’t live and vote there. Now that the elections are over, it is clear that by electing Nir Barkat, Jerusalem has chosen a new direction, and with good reason.

Over the years, Jerusalem has become a poor, unattractive, near-unlivable city, that has served as more of a tourist attraction than the capital of the Jewish state. Traffic is horrendous, cultural events are rare, rents have risen sky-high, taxpayers are leaving the city in droves, and a non-contributing sector of Israeli society has been slowly, but surely, taking over.

Jerusalem needs to draw business, arts, students. Jerusalem needs a real nightlife, and a real restaurant scene. Jerusalem needs vibrant neighborhoods all over, not just two or three small popular areas. Jerusalem needs to be livable for its residents, for Israeli citizens.

It does not need to draw more and more tourists. It does not need to have apartments bought up by rich foreigners, only to be left vacant for most of the year. On that issue, Jerusalem should institute a much higher property tax on apartments owned by non-citizens, and on apartments that are vacant for the majority of the time.

A sectoral candidate cannot mend this city. I hope Nir Barkat will succeed in improving Jerusalem, in making Jerusalem a real city again, and returning Jerusalem to its proper status as the living capital of Israel.

על חומותייך, עיר דוד, הפקדתי שומרים – עשו את עבודתכם נאמנה

DC Election Celebrations and Police Incompetence

‍‍יב חשון תשסט - Nov 9th, 2008
by LB.
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This post comes a bit late, but it is relevant nonetheless. Last Tuesday, as you know, Barack Obama was elected President of the United States. So far, so good. Democracy in action, the people have spoken, etc.

Here in DC, celebrations went on well into the night. Being happy and celebrating is all well and good, but the revelry went completely overboard. In Adams Morgan, people congregated on the streets, yelling and chanting Obama’s name incessantly. The worst part, however, was the honking. It was like the first few minutes after a sports victory – but it went on for hours on end.

First, who are these people? Did they think they could just quit their jobs now since Obama is going take care of all of their problems? Why else are so many people out on the street at 2:00 am on a Tuesday night? I don’t understand.

More importantly, the police did not do anything. It’s one thing to hear party-goers on a Saturday night. It’s another when it’s Tuesday, and the noise is far worse than any weekend. In Adams Morgan, no less. And so, despite numerous calls to the police, nothing was done. At one point, dispatch informed me that the crowds would be dispersed at 2:15 am. What does that mean? Public disturbances are fine until 2:15 am? Again, I don’t understand.

In any case, there was a police car on the corner of 18th and Columbia, blocking the road (unnecessary, since no cars could get through the mob of people on the street anyway), just like on weekend nights. So, I went down and spoke to one of the police officers who was just standing there, and I explained the situation to him. At first, he had no idea this was a problem. This was 2:00 am and there was more noise than at a football game, what sort of idiot does not see any problem? He also told me that dispatch had not informed him of any complaints. This sort of inefficiency (or is it just carelessness?) on the part of the Metroplolitan Police Department is just mind-boggling.

The police officer seemed pretty nice, though, despite being more than a little stupid, and he told me that he would begin to take care of the honking, at least. I waited half a block away to see what would happen. I assumed taking care of the noise disturbances meant issuing tickets, or at the very least saying something to the offenders. No, nothing of the sort. Instead, I saw the officers hug two guys who were celebrating in the street.

Whom exactly was protected and served??

Rahm Emanuel – Not Another Livni?

‍‍ז חשון תשסט - Nov 5th, 2008
by LB.
3 comments

Congressman Rahm Emanuel has accepted Obama’s offer to serve as the next White House Chief of Staff. One can only hope that he lives up to his heritage, and doesn’t turn out to be like the last child of an Irgun member to wield power, and attempts to remain true to the ideals for which his father fought.

UPDATE: “In an email to NBC News, Emanuel spokeswoman Sarah Feinberg denies the reporting that Emanuel has accepted the chief of staff job.” Nevertheless, it still seems likely that he will accept the job. “Illinois Rep. Rahm Emanuel has, as expected, accepted the job as chief of staff to President-elect Barack Obama, according to informed Democratic sources.”

UPDATE 2: I shouldn’t be holding my breath. Oh, I’m not.

The Rise and Downfall of Bara(c)ks

‍‍ז חשון תשסט - Nov 5th, 2008
by LB.
2 comments

For those of you living under a rock, Barack Obama is now the President-elect of the United States, and will take office in only a few short months.

Here in D.C., the celebrations are everywhere. People have been on the streets, yelling and screaming, cars honking, reveling their victory well into the night. In my opinion, however, this celebration will be short-lived, and in only a few years people will be asking themselves what went wrong.

Obama, despite all of his talk of uniting America, is nowhere near a centrist. He is far left on the American political spectrum. Without going into policy specifics, I predict that once he takes office, this man, whose charisma and oratorical skills are his only real selling points, will disappoint a large number of those who voted for him.

The celebrating crowds remind me of other celebrations due to a political victory. In 1999, another popular man won a big political victory, and his supporters celebrated well into the night of those elections as well. Ehud Barak was elected to the post of Prime Minister of Israel, over Benjamin Netanyahu, by a wide margin of 12 percentage points (during the short period in which direct elections for prime minister were held). At the time, his victory was considered a landslide. Yet less than two years later, maligned by a megalomaniacal, failure of a prime minister, who led the country into an unsuccessful capitulation, the public unceremoniously kicked Barak to the curb. In 2001, Ariel Sharon (on whom my views are the topic for another time) beat Ehud Barak by a margin of nearly 25 percentage points.

Cheap, demagogical populism does not last very long. The quick ascension of one Barak was followed by an even quicker downfall, and I think the same will happen to this Barack. I just hope we’ll all still be around to see it.

UPDATE: Soccerdad also has an analogy of Barack’s victory to Ehud Barak’s rise and fall.

You Don’t Want To? Don’t Vote!

‍‍ו חשון תשסט - Nov 4th, 2008
by LB.
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After hundreds of millions of dollars, thousands of hours, and way too many talking empty heads on TV, U.S. Election Day is finally here.

The campaign started off quite a while ago, with a lot more people in the race than the two major figures in the running today. I will not support anyone publicly on this blog, though if you have been reading some of what I have had to say, you probably have a pretty good picture of who I support (rather, who I do not support).

There has been a strong trend to try and “get out of the vote.” It happens every presidential election campaign, both in the U.S. and in Israel. In the U.S., however, it is more than just a PSA or two, it is a multimillion dollar campaign to convince people to vote. I understand the benefit of teaching children about their (future) civic rights, and how voting can and cannot influence their lives. What I cannot understand is trying to convince people to vote, who do not really want to.

Non-voters belong, primarily, to one of two groups. The first is an ideological minority who, for a variety of reasons, whether it be dissatisfaction with the choice candidates, or with the system itself. I can understand that, and I can even understand trying to convince these people to vote, to try and change system, or something else along those lines. Yet most non-voters do so out of laziness, forgetfulness, or an utter lack of interest. Why would I want to convince someone, who is so stupid as to forget to do something they deem very important (year after year) to have any influence over my life? Why would I want to convince someone who has no established opinion on the issues to do something that could potentially change my life?

If you don’t want to vote – don’t! And if that’s a choice, not a mistake, then more power to you.

Honest Benny Returns to Politics

‍‍ד חשון תשסט - Nov 2nd, 2008
by LB.
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Good news on the political front in Israel. Benny Begin, one of the very few Israeli politicians who is truly respected for his honesty and decency, who holds rational, positive views on the direction Israel must take, is returning to politics. Even Meretz MK, Zehava Gal-On, whose views on Israel are dangerous, to say the least, called him “a worthy, decent and honest man,” and that “the Knesset that needs people like him.”

According to the Ynet report, Begin plans to run for a spot on the Likud list, before the upcoming elections for the 18th Knesset. Unlike Avigdor Lieberman, who turned against his constituents and joined Olmert’s government, Begin actually stayed true to his ideals when, in 1997, he resigned from the Likud after Bibi Netanyahu signed the Hebron Agreement. He left politics entirely in 1999, when his Herut party only succeeded in winning four seats in the Knesset.

The Likud, headed by Netanyahu, are still only the lesser of the three evils with a shot at winning in February. However, one can still hope that Begin will at least somewhat keep Netanyahu on the right path.

Bibi also said the Likud is ”witnessing a wave of (people) joining and returning to the Likud,” as if his party’s ideals and strong views are the reason for this wave. It is not. The rats are simply abandoning the slowly sinking ship, known as Kadima.

Ynet also reports that “Netanyahu [is] attempt[ing] to enlist other celebrities to his roster, such as former IDF Chief of Staff Moshe Ya’alon and former Minister Dan Meridor.” Ya’alon is still much of a question mark, though some of his recent work seems to be a positive sign. Meridor, on the other hand, Israel could do without. Membership in the corrupt, ideology-less organization known as Kadima really is a permanent stain on his record, and his re-joining Likud would be no more than a strategic move meant to save his political career, belying an opportunism that that is all too prevalent in Israel, a trend we should strive to eliminate.

In any case, Israel needs more Begins and fewer Olmerts. May this February be a positive move in a new direction, and an end to the last three years of Olmert-ism.

Your Vote Does Not Matter

‍‍כח תשרי תשסט - Oct 27th, 2008
by LB.
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The purpose of a large democratic system is to give the public the illusion that they have a real role in running their country, and that their vote actually counts.

In the U.S. this is very obvious, primarily when ones learns of the Electoral College. However, abolishing of the current system will not lead to more voters with any real influence. On the contrary, instead of focusing on swing states, (or “battleground states,” as the news networks here have decided to call them), campaigns will then only focus on the largest media markets. In that case, voters in New York, California and Chicago might actually be courted by campaigns, but New Hampshire, Iowa and all of the “flyover states” can forget about ever mattering again.

In Israel, the average vote actually carries much more weight, both because of the relatively small size of the country, and because there is actually a real state-wide general election. However, a voter in Israel cannot vote for the person of his or her choice. Rather, the arcane parliamentary system, based wholly on lists, wrests any power a voter might have had from his hands and delivers it promptly into the laps of the corrupt members of the various parties. Thus, Knesset Members are accountable primarily to the members of their parties, and corruption ensues (see: Likud with Ariel Sharon at the helm in 2005).

Israel must adopt a system of regional representation. No, it will not eliminate the danger of corruption, but it will make elected officials slightly more accountable to the people they are, in theory, supposed to be serving. Maybe that way the Negev and the Galil might actually get the attention they deserve. Maybe Jerusalem will be more than just a symbol, and move towards being more of a real city than simply a tourist attraction. I know, I know, but one can dream…

Back in the western hemisphere, Sarah Silverman has decided it is a great idea for young American Jews to schlep (her choice of words, not mine) down to Florida, to try and convince their grandparents to vote for Obama. Apart from the initial chutzpah, implying that the only reason the Jewish elderly would vote for someone like McCain is because they are misguided and need to be educated of their wrong views, the overall tone of the video is just plain insulting, and wrong on more than issue. Nevertheless, it appears that if she wants to encourage mass migrations of Jews across America in order to convince people to vote for Obama, it appears she should actually get Florida’s Jewish senior citizenry to try and influence their children.

That doesn’t change the fact that the average vote in most places in America does not matter at all. Referencing Sarah Silverman’s gall, Gail Collins wants her vote to matter. “While it’s not clear that many of these trips have actually taken place, it is probably a bad sign that we have not heard any talk about McCain urging retired WASPs in Arizona to go to Wisconsin and try to talk their grandchildren into voting Republican.”

No Good Men (or Women)

‍‍כז תשרי תשסט - Oct 26th, 2008
by LB.
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Livni is right, the “government is supposed to advance processes and represent the good of the country.” That is precisely why Kadima must disappear. The history of Israeli politics has had its fair share of corruption, blackmail, extortion, and outright filth (see: Alex Goldfarb, otherwise known as a stain upon the Jewish people).

Tzipi Livni is nearly as good of an example as Ehud Olmert of a hypocrite attempting to take the reins in leading Israel towards utter oblivion. This is a person who grew up as in the political atmosphere of Herut, and as such, was a strong believer in the right of the Jewish people to the land of Israel. Today, however, she is content with following Olmert’s lead, and doing what she can to curry favor with the nations of the world, who love us oh so much, only to get her name in history books.

Netanyahu will likely win the upcoming elections, which will probably be scheduled for sometime in either February or March. I am not his biggest fan, to say the least. However, when presented with the option of Livni, the opportunist, Barak, the one who would sell his mother in order to get Bill Clinton to like him, and Netanyahu – I am forced to choose the latter, who at the very least would improve Israel’s financial situation.

Possibly the most absurd, yet very sad, thing in this article is this: “An early election could kill off the already slim chances of meeting Washington’s objective of an Israeli peace deal with Palestinians before President George W. Bush leaves office in January.”

Mazal Mualem, who wrote this, clearly has not the least bit of understanding of the ongoings between Israel and its neighbors. Is there anyone at all in their right mind who thought there was any chance of peace in the foreseeable future, let alone within the next few months? Any such person has no business writing for a newspaper on a topic about which they clearly do not the first thing.

Good for new elections. Bad there won’t be anyone winning who is actually deserving of the position.

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